*Group members in bold


Kukla, T., N. Siler, R. Fiorella, M. M. Lague, C. Hvam, J. K. C. Rugenstein, A. L. S. Swann. Large isotope signals in tropical precipitation require large-scale changes in rainout. AGU Advances, submitted. Preprint.

Siler, N., R. Fiorella, T. Kukla: A unified interpretation of variability in precipitation isotope ratios. Journal of Climate, submitted. Preprint.

Hall, A., S. Rahimi, J. Norris, N. Ban, N. Siler, L. R. Leung, P. Ullrich,K. A. Reed, A. F. Prein, Y. Qian: An evaluation of dynamical downscaling methods used to project regional climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, submitted.


Bonan, D., N. Feldl, N. Siler, J. Kay, K. Armour, I. Eisenman, G. Roe: The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106648.

Koszuta, M., N. Siler, L. R. Leung, J. Wettstein: Weakened orographic influence on cool-season precipitation in simulations of future warming over the western US. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107298.


Zhou, W., L. R. Leung, N. Siler, J. Lu: Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect. Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42181-x.

Siler, N., D. Bonan, A. Donohoe: Diagnosing mechanisms of hydrologic change under global warming in the CESM1 Large Ensemble. J. Climate, 36, 8243–8257. Formatted version. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0086.1

Bonan, D., N. Siler, G. Roe, K. Armour: Energetic constraints on the pattern of changes to the hydrological cycle under global warming. J. Climate, 36, 3499–3522. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0337.1

O’Neill, L. and N. Siler: Drought, and O’Neill, L., N. Siler, P. Loikith, A. Arends: Extreme Temperatures, in Sixth Oregon Climate Assessment. E. Fleishman, editor. DOI: 10.5399/osu/1161


Po-Chedley, S., J. Fasullo, N. Siler, E. Barnes, Z. Labe, C. Bonfils, B. Santer: Internal variability and forcing influence model-satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119 (47) e2209431119. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2209431119

Rupp, D., L. Hawkins, S. Li, M. Koszuta, N. Siler: Spatial patterns of extreme precipitation and their changes under ~2 °C global warming: A large-ensemble study of the western USA. Climate Dynamics, 59, 2363–2379. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06214-3


Fiorella, R., N. Siler, J. Nusbaumer, and D. Noone: Enhancing understanding of the hydrological cycle via pairing of process-oriented and isotope ratio tracers. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13 (10), e2021MS002632. DOI: 10.1029/2021MS002648.

Siler, N., A. Bailey, G. Roe, C. Buizert, B. Markle, and D. Noone, 2021: The large-scale, long-term coupling of temperature, hydrology, and water isotopes. J. Climate, 34 (16), 6725-6742. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0563.10.

Burls, N., C.D. Bradshaw, …, N. Siler, …, 2021:.: Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi-Model ensemble (MioMIP1). Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36, e2020PA004054. DOI: 10.1029/2020PA004054

Huston, A., N. Siler, G. Roe, E. Pettit, and N. Steiger, 2021: Understanding drivers of glacier length variability over the last millennium. The Cryosphere, 15, 1645–1662. DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021


Inglis, G., F. Bragg, …, N. Siler, …, 2020: Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM and latest Paleocene. Clim. Past, 16, 1953–1968. DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020

Payne, A., M. Demory, L.R. Leung, A. Ramos, C. Shields, J. Rutz, N. Siler, G. Villarini, A. Hall, and F.M. Ralph, 2020. Atmospheric river responses to climate change and shifting hydrological impacts. Nature Reviews Earth Environ., 1, 143–157. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-0030-5


Armour, K.C., N. Siler, A. Donohoe and G.H. Roe, 2019: Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion. J. Climate, 323655–3680. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0563.1.

Siler, N., G. Roe, K. Armour, and N. Feldl, 2019: Revisiting the surface-energy-flux perspective on the sensitivity of global precipitation to climate change. Climate Dynamics, 52(7), 3983-3995. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4359-0Full text (read only).

Siler, N., C. Proistosescu, and S. Po-Chedley, 2019: Natural variability has slowed the decline in western-US snowpack since the 1980s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46(1), 346-355. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081080.


Bonan, D. B., K. C. Armour, G. H. Roe, N. Siler, and N. Feldl, 2018: Sources of uncertainty in the meridional pattern of climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett.,45(17), 9131-9140.  DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079429

Siler, N., G. Roe, and K. Armour, 2018: Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model. J. Climate, 31 (18)7481-7493. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1

Amaya, D., N. Siler, A. Miller, and S.P. Xie, 2018: The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley cell width variability. Climate Dynamics, 51, 305-319. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3921-5Full text (read-only).

Siler, N., S. Po-Chedley, and C. Bretherton, 2018: Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds. Climate Dynamics, 50, 1209-1220. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3673-2Full text (read-only).


Siler, N., Y. Kosaka, S.P. Xie, and X. Li, 2017: Tropical ocean contributions to California’s surprisingly dry El Ni˜no of 2015-16. J. Climate, 30 (24), 10067-10079. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D- 17-0177.1.


Siler, N. and D. Durran, 2016: What causes weak orographic rain shadows? Insights from case studies in the Cascades and idealized simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 73 (10), 4077-4099. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0371.1

Christian, J., N. Siler, G. Roe, and M. Koutnik, 2016: Identifying dynamically induced variability in glacier mass balance records. J. Climate, 29 (24), 8915-8929. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0128.1


Siler, N. and D. Durran, 2015: Assessing the influence of the tropopause on mountain waves and orographic precipitation using linear theory and numerical simulations. J. Atm. Sci., 72 (2), 803-820. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0200.1


Siler, N. and G. Roe, 2014: How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2606- 2613. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059095


Siler, N., G. Roe, and D. Durran, 2013: On the dynamical causes of variability in the rain-shadow effect: a case study of the Washington Cascades. J. Hydrometeor., 14 (1), 122-139. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-12-045.1

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